Well, it seems that the Arab Spring in Syria just will not quit, and things are getting rather problematic. The current government wants to maintain power, and the world is worried that if it falls things could be worse after it is gone. Then there is the issue with human rights, and the powers that be telling President Assad that if he keeps up the brutality and killing of protestors that he may in the end not only lose his leadership role, but also be brought to an international court to answer for his actions.
There was an interesting position paper posted on the Council of Foreign Relations Website on October 24, 2011 "Policy Innovation Memorandum NO# 9" by Elliott Abrams in regards to "American Options in Syria" after and during the unrest and continued Arab Spring. The paper begins with this very apropos comment as its main point and abstract-like assessment:
"With each month, the level of violence in Syria rises. Bashar al-Assad's regime has killed just short of three thousand citizens, and with defections from the army growing, it appears the population is starting to fight back. A full-scale civil war, with the Alawite minority regime fighting for its life against an armed rebellion by forces based in the Sunni majority population, seems increasingly plausible."
A full-scale civil war with both sides armed is perhaps the worst scenario for those who are living in the country. So far, tanks, and the Syrian military and police have fired on protestors, and driven into areas of protestor stronghold neighborhoods and killed over a 1,000 people. The longer this goes on the more who will be killed. As military soldiers and officers switch sides, for them it is "do-or-die" as they've created a mutiny situation for themselves which is most likely punishable by death, if the government regains control.
So, will Syria fall next you ask? Yes, there is a good possibility that this might happen, but the Syrian Government may also hold-tough and in the end outlast the protestors and their resistance. Meanwhile, the world waits and watches, with that entire region left in the balance.
The implications are huge, remember Syria has terrorist organizations hanging out there, and the current regime is a minority, so whatever happens next if Syria falls, will be much different than it is currently. Quite frankly, there is a lot of concern out there and rightfully so.
Please consider all this and stay-tuned, as the Arab Spring is turning into the Arab Perennial at a theatre near you.
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